Global warming

 

Global warming

John Houghton

Reports on progress in physics 68 (6), 1343, 2005

'Global warming'is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the'greenhouse effect'that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources.

Pakistan PTI and Imran khan

 It has been a long time since I've argued with anyone. I used to be opinionated and vocal, but life's push and shove has taught me that neither am I all-knowing nor is it worth my time to become entangled in confrontations. I have opinions, but I keep them to myself. In fact, mostly I wonder if I'm even right about anything.

This last week has tested my resolve to avoid confrontation. I'm not stooping to disrespect but I admit I've been uncharacteristically vocal. Exhausted, I am forced to question myself: Why? Why this intense need to express, defend, sometimes attack? Introspection has brought the understanding that I must not stay neutral, I can not afford to exclude myself anymore, and that it is really about one tiny thing: how the events of a gut-wrenching week have made me FEEL.

I was speaking with my dear friend Ruby Saleem today. We are both PAF brats, brought up on "PAF ration" as my dad would proudly say. Ruby's husband, also a PAF brat, used to quip "Hamarey baap ki Air Force hai!", literally. Ruby's father and mine served together for many years. Her mother who died young taught my mom, a new PAF bride, how to stitch and crochet. My father flew missions in 3 operations, was awarded Sitara e Jurat in 1965 and is a celebrated PAF hero. All their lives, our parents enjoyed a warm and loving relationship. Ruby's generation and mine nurtures boundless love for the Pakistan Air Force. When we think family, we conjure up the "Blue”; PAF is family. 

Ruby's husband Saleem Nawaz and my Razi attained shahadat together. She was left with four children as was I. Saleem Bhai and Razi were buried on the same day, next to each other, in Islamabad.  Common citizens lined the streets from Chaklala to Islamabad as their janaza passed, many crying openly. There were upwards of 75,000 people at the prayer, I was told; unknown people who had nothing to do with us. Someone said, "We buried our Chief, Mushaf Ali Mir, in Lahore and here we bury two future Chiefs - Saleem Nawaz and Rizwanullah Khan - together. What a loss, what a sad day for PAF". 

Thus, Ruby and I have a bond beyond friendship, into shared history and indescribable tragedy, and I imagine we will find a way to happily die together.

Ruby is livid, and I'm pretty sad too. I asked her "Rubaji, I didn't feel this helpless when Razi left me. Did you, when Saleem Bhai went?". "No Seemi" she said confidently. "They were soldiers, shahadat was their desire and destiny. We married them knowing this, didn't we? And we are shaheeds' wives, not widows - wives. Why would we feel helpless? Allah has promised to look after our children, shaheed ke sadqey". And look after them Allah has - all 8 of them happy, strong, good human beings living their lives not seeking pity or favor, holding their heads high because their fathers served with pride and died honorably. 

"A good death is its own reward" someone said. Ruby and I, and hundreds like us, have attained Sabr through this philosophy.  

So why this angst, this helplessness, this desperate feeling of being cheated, betrayed, being utterly and permanently humiliated, now when our Qayamat has passed and we have survived? We should be content and relieved that our Azmaish is nearly over, and whatever disgusting, miserable events are coming to pass, what does it matter to us? We are protected, physically and spiritually. 

I have tried to deconstruct the emotional upheaval I am experiencing and have arrived at the great #mayaangelou’s wise words.

Losing the most beloved beings in our lives, our children orphaned, our parents devastated and our lives uprooted had a direct bombing like impact upon us. We were destroyed and reconstruction seemed impossible. The air crash could have been due to any reason - pilot error, machine malfunction, inclement weather, a conspiracy to kill - it didn't matter. We blamed neither God nor the PAF; we were content that theirs was a good death, and that they had tasked us to bring up their children. We were on a mission and focused on our true north - becoming worthy of the sacrifice they were honored with. We were Dukhi - permanently, but we felt cheated - NEVER. The FEELING prevailed, circumstances simply existed, inconsequential and unintimidating. We have lived our lives proudly as shaheeds' families, have not considered our situation a favor to the nation, and we are better human beings for it.

Then, last week happened.

#PrimeMinisterImranKhan was not a perfect leader and is not a flawless man, even if Ruby and I (and crores of others) believe that he was the best we could be blessed with. Much can be debated about his achievements and missteps. But here's the thing; never once did he make us feel that our loss was insignificant or forgotten. What he said didn't matter, what he did didn't matter - how he made us FEEL mattered. We felt we mattered, and that's a powerful feeling for shaheeds' families. 

We would've accepted his ouster in an election, through any lawful, transparent, non-conspiratorial process. Let us go a step further; we may have even accepted that such unethical, illegal crap happens. No matter; kick him out, call an election and let him contest fair and square. This would be frustrating, but not humiliating.

We are now left with murderers, money launderers, land grabbers, liars and thieves, rapists and pretenders, cowards who have no empathy with the nation. Ill-informed citizens like me stating the obvious may catch criticism, but records and evidence tell us the same and more. Criminals are sworn in to the highest offices of Pakistan on the day they were to be indicted. Convicted murderers are welcomed home from abscondment with garlands and facilitated by government officials. The cowardly Nawaz hustles back to Pakistan while he ran scared earlier bearing false witness. The honorable courts throw their doors open for criminals in the middle of the night while they never wake up to people's plight. What Armageddon is this? 

Then, the heartbreaking rumors that my beloved institution, the one that has fed me and protected me, that I have held dear all my life, the one that I entrusted my Razi to - the military - may have engineered this? I felt as if Abbi and Ammi had died all over again, leaving me desolate and vulnerable. I don't believe it, it is beyond my wildest expectations, I would rather die than believe this. Is it so? Tell me it's not!

Ruby cries profusely, and I admit I've been crying a lot too. We hold unwavering faith and trust in #ImranKhan; he is incorruptible and his heart beats for his people - us. He is a courageous man and doesn't need our protection. Maybe his destiny too is shahadat; we give him in Allah's protection. 

But the rest, we can not forgive. We are cheated and humiliated, and more so if our own colluded to bring this upon us. Saleem Bhai and Razi, my hero father and my PoW father-in-law, Mushaf Ali Mir and Rashid Minhas, Sarfaraz Rafiqui and Mervyn Middlecoat, and so many other gracious souls wasted their lives in selfless service. They should have lived so that we could remain whole, so that my 3 year old Bilal could remember his father and my 17 year old Taimur not be burdened with responsibilities, so that my Andaleeb and Sabine could rush into their father's strong, protective embrace every time the world tried to hurt them. 

So that Ruby and I would not have spent the best years of lives alone, in love with dead people. 

That odious, pretentious criminal called me a "beggar". As a 16 year old starting university in the US, I worked to make my semester fee and never asked my parents. As a PAF wife, I held down a demanding career while juggling my PAF duties. At the most daunting hour of my life, with a husband lost and four children to bring up, I took nothing from anyone other than the rightful pension due to me from the PAF which, too, was donated to RizScholars and never found its way into my household expenses. I went to work at 16 and, at 61, I am still working. My children imbibe their work ethic from me, the young people I work with look up to me, my learned colleagues across the world hold me in the highest regard. What have I to show for a life, lived with as much courage and grace as I could muster, but my self-respect which I have kept intact despite a shattered heart? 

I am not a beggar! How dare that bumbling, incompetent wretch make me FEEL like one.

I imagine the same reason has riled up the nation to the unprecedented groundswell that we are witnessing. The evil, unholy alliance is shocked, caught by surprise and scurrying about for damage control. The spin doesn’t seem to be working. Why? 

Because It doesn't matter who did what, when, and with whom; it matters how they have made us FEEL. 

A story copied from our other social media page.

Jammu and Kashmir status and article 370

 This post explains some of the controversies surrounding the recent revocation of the special constitutional status of the state of Jammu and Kashmir under article 370 of India’s Constitution, and the repeal of article 35A, which had allowed the state to define permanents residents of the state and certain special rights and privileges attached to such residency. It also includes a brief historical background of the dispute, the legal steps taken to revoke the special status, and legal challenges to that decision.

Prior to British India gaining independence in 1947 and the partitioning of the region into the dominions of India and Pakistan, the state of Jammu and Kashmir was one of the 565 princely states that were not under the direct control of the British colonial administration and retained a great degree of autonomy to manage their own affairs (except in the area of defense and foreign relations).

The process of partitioning British India was governed by the 1947 Indian Independence Act. Princely states were not directly incorporated in either dominion, and section 7(1)(b) of the Act provided that “suzerainty of His Majesty” over these states had lapsed and its powers had been returned back to them. They were theoretically granted the option to stay independent or accede to either dominion. However, as described in one journal article, “without British forces available for their defense, independence was not a real option for the princely states, many of which were quite small. The states were encouraged by then-Viceroy Lord Mountbatten to accede to one dominion or the other” and did so based on their geographical position, religious identity, or other factors. The ruler of Kashmir, Maharaja Hari Singh, was wavering between acceding to either dominion and choosing to remain independent and neutral at the time, as noted in another article:

Maharaj Hari Singh in Kashmir inherited a unique conundrum: he was a Hindu, but held dominion over a Muslim majority. In addition, his was the only princely state bordering both India and the newly born Pakistan, giving rise to the possibility of accession to either nation. Further complicating the already tense birth of two nations was Maharaj Hari Singh’s open discussion of an independent Kashmir, which only served to confuse and delay the question of the state’s accession.

However, after an uprising against the ruler in Poonch and an invasion by a Pathan tribal militia from Pakistan, Maharaja Singh decided to turn to India for military assistance and executed an Instrument of Accession to India. The accession was executed with the expectation that a plebiscite or referendum would be conducted to determine the final status of the state.

Eventually, regular Pakistani troops became involved and a direct conflict between the two new countries arose until a UN-brokered ceasefire was signed on January 1, 1949. Later that same year a ceasefire line was agreed upon. The northern and western part of the former princely state was administered by Pakistan as Azad Kashmir and the Northern Areas (now known as Gilgit-Baltistan), and the state of Jammu and Kashmir acceded to India. In 1965, Pakistan and India went through a second war over the status of Jammu and Kashmir, but by the end of the conflict the status quo 1949 ceasefire line was maintained. Terms for a plebiscite could not be agreed to by either side and, by 1954, India dropped the option for a plebiscite.

Some territorial gains in the Kashmir region were made by India in 1971 during the war between the two countries over the secession of East Pakistan (present day Bangladesh), which ended with the signing of the Simla Agreement on July 2, 1972. The Agreement stipulated that the countries are to “settle their differences by peaceful means through bilateral negotiations” and prohibited either country from “unilaterally alter[ing] the situation.” Moreover, the 1949 ceasefire line became the line of control – a de facto border between the areas controlled by the respective countries.

Over the years, the region has been embroiled in many border skirmishes, a high altitude war in 1999 (known as the Kargil conflict) between the countries, and a Pakistan-supported insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir that has existed since 1988. Currently, the Indian government asserts that Jammu and Kashmir is an “integral part of India and is a matter strictly internal to India” and any dispute with Pakistan should be resolved bilaterally. Pakistan, on the other hand, takes the position that India’s recent actions are a “violation of the U.N. Security Council resolutions on Kashmir and bilateral Pakistan-India agreements, such as the 1972 Shimla Agreement and the Lahore Declaration” and wishes to internationalize the dispute in a global forum.

Operational Gaming and decision making

 

Since the purpose of my previous writings has been to create awareness regarding operations research and its efficacy in our decision making cycle. I found these definitions easy to comprehend. Here they go;

A simulation in which decision making is performed by one or more real decision makers is called “operational gaming.” Such simulations are commonly used in the study of interactions of decision makers as in competitive situations. Military gaming has long been used as a training device, but only relatively recently has it been used for research purposes. There is still considerable difficulty, however, in drawing inferences from operational games to the real world.

Experimental optimization is a means of experimenting on a system so as to find the best solution to a problem within it. Such experiments, conducted either simultaneously or sequentially, may be designed in various ways, no one of which is best in all situations.

Definitions taken from britannica 

LIGHT A LAMP FOR IT IS THE DARK HOUR.: Modeling and Simulation War gaming and Synthetic E...

LIGHT A LAMP FOR IT IS THE DARK HOUR.: Modeling and Simulation War gaming and Synthetic E...:  So in previous article we have talked about War gaming.  Its seems so but believe me its very safer than war itself and it has little to wi...

Modeling and Simulation War gaming and Synthetic Environement

 So in previous article we have talked about War gaming. 

Its seems so but believe me its very safer than war itself and it has little to with war. The name WAR got stick to it may be because it looks more appealing or perhaps has been used by military organizations 'vocally' so much that it became War Gaming. I like the term and the power of realism within it so much that time and again I want to emphasize the use of it. Understanding the key concept being the key. So lets see the following graph taken from a reference book:

The loop diagram explain the difference between the three. 

Modeling 
War gaming
Synthetic Environment

The war game sits on the top of the other two. Simply because the decision maker immersion power. You must have played board games, chess in your part of the world. Have you noticed how deeply involve the player is during each of the move. The process for each move is slow but involves human in the loop so much deeper extent. Synthetic environments and modeling have their own advantages of speed and dynamic scalability but involves lot of cost.  So its just like playing FIFA on PS4; you would need to set up a gaming station. Why not simply buy a football and catch the field. Cost versus immersion? 

But what makes these war games so interesting and reason of their novel use in strategy making houses of big businesses and think tanks? 

They introduce probability over absoluteness!! and we shall talk about that. 

War gaming and decision making

 

I had been thinking of writing something useful and spreading what i believe needs lot of attention. From futuristic point, some ideas and terms are attracting research and becoming multi billion dollar industry.

One of them is war gaming!!

Lets see it from military point of view 

NATO defines the term war gaming as “a simulation of a military operation, by whatever means, using specific rules, data, methods and procedures”. A typical war game involves representation of a combat situation being played by two sided adversarial players. Although by NATO definition a war game is not a tool for analysis rather than a tool for determining possible outcome of a laid down scenario. However, since the method itself provides opportunity of interaction between players acting as opposing forces, the outcome of these interactions can be studied for tailoring to own requirement. Therefore, a war game can be used to enable decision makers in understanding dynamics of war and in optimizing the decision making process of planning, acquisition, deployment and execution phases of a combat. It is this unique replication of near realism which simulates the outcome and answers our anticipation of ‘what will happen in battlefield’. Unlike other Operational Research techniques, war gaming simulates employment of our weapon mix in a given combat situation where the results can be analyzed to determine causes of win or loss.

Simply it is just like any other computer based game such as Street Fighter, Taken, FIFA and so on. So they actually prepare you for real time scenarios.  

 Do they have use in our daily lives, professoin,....?

yes Big time......

and we will discuss that later. kids are crying...!!