Modeling and Simulation War gaming and Synthetic Environement

 So in previous article we have talked about War gaming. 

Its seems so but believe me its very safer than war itself and it has little to with war. The name WAR got stick to it may be because it looks more appealing or perhaps has been used by military organizations 'vocally' so much that it became War Gaming. I like the term and the power of realism within it so much that time and again I want to emphasize the use of it. Understanding the key concept being the key. So lets see the following graph taken from a reference book:

The loop diagram explain the difference between the three. 

Modeling 
War gaming
Synthetic Environment

The war game sits on the top of the other two. Simply because the decision maker immersion power. You must have played board games, chess in your part of the world. Have you noticed how deeply involve the player is during each of the move. The process for each move is slow but involves human in the loop so much deeper extent. Synthetic environments and modeling have their own advantages of speed and dynamic scalability but involves lot of cost.  So its just like playing FIFA on PS4; you would need to set up a gaming station. Why not simply buy a football and catch the field. Cost versus immersion? 

But what makes these war games so interesting and reason of their novel use in strategy making houses of big businesses and think tanks? 

They introduce probability over absoluteness!! and we shall talk about that. 

War gaming and decision making

 

I had been thinking of writing something useful and spreading what i believe needs lot of attention. From futuristic point, some ideas and terms are attracting research and becoming multi billion dollar industry.

One of them is war gaming!!

Lets see it from military point of view 

NATO defines the term war gaming as “a simulation of a military operation, by whatever means, using specific rules, data, methods and procedures”. A typical war game involves representation of a combat situation being played by two sided adversarial players. Although by NATO definition a war game is not a tool for analysis rather than a tool for determining possible outcome of a laid down scenario. However, since the method itself provides opportunity of interaction between players acting as opposing forces, the outcome of these interactions can be studied for tailoring to own requirement. Therefore, a war game can be used to enable decision makers in understanding dynamics of war and in optimizing the decision making process of planning, acquisition, deployment and execution phases of a combat. It is this unique replication of near realism which simulates the outcome and answers our anticipation of ‘what will happen in battlefield’. Unlike other Operational Research techniques, war gaming simulates employment of our weapon mix in a given combat situation where the results can be analyzed to determine causes of win or loss.

Simply it is just like any other computer based game such as Street Fighter, Taken, FIFA and so on. So they actually prepare you for real time scenarios.  

 Do they have use in our daily lives, professoin,....?

yes Big time......

and we will discuss that later. kids are crying...!!

Opposing winds

What has kept me running and flying high to achieve my goals.
Out of course many factors, one most prominent has been 'opposing winds'.

Starting from entering into a 'mohalla cricket team' to becoming a captain of my school, winning a speech competition to securing academic grades......it has been all those people who thought i would not be able to make it. Their constant wish for my failure kept me striking hard every time i could not.

The thought that people who envy me would be happy on my failure pushed me to make upset. To shatter their faith on their evil wishes and beliefs, prove them wrong. And yes, to lend hand to people like me.

It is just your perception. Way of looking how the stage appears. Nothing is inherited, nothing stays forever and no one has the birth right for claiming success. I met lot of people who thought they were genius like Einstein, the remaining was propagated through sheer propaganda of their parents.

I always told myself. "Farishtay aa kar apko ilm nae dain gay. Ilhaam nae ho ga apko". You have to work your way through. You have to become genius. Like a popular saying, genius is not something you are, its something you do. Intelligence is not something you have by birth, its a trait you have to develop. It does not stay there with you always; you have to keep it there with you with an effort.

Remember you consistent hard work, struggle and determination to shape your destiny will lay path for your constant achievements.

And now my nature is such that i can't fly without opposing winds. I love them when they come hard at me. Without you, i am just a bored lazy man.

Iqbal nay kaha tha...bad e mukhalif say na ghubra....! agay ap google kar lain.

JazaKaAllah Khair. 

U turn. Who are you?

LIGHT A LAMP FOR IT IS THE DARK HOUR.: Who are you?: I bought myself a red jacket today. Its not the jacket that is really thoughtful, instead its the red color. I never liked red color. Or...

So are the one too who is doing things he never liked. ? 

Have you started taking u turns. 

Choice, Judgement or perception

I bought myself a red jacket today.
Its not the jacket that is really thoughtful, instead its the red color.

I never liked red color. Or more colorful colors.....bright shiny. I always had the feeling that bright colors are attractive and therefore feminine. They don't have grace.

But now my feelings changed. I now feel that colors are independent of gender or sex. After all, we do not have a written code of conduct for colors. Who said that bright colors like yellow, red and even pink are feminine.

After all why do you shop pink for a baby girl? Who told you that.? Who made this perception that pink is to be worn by girls.

Colors. ....So I bought myself a red jacket.

Its not the debate of perception of colors....its my changing behavior. May be if the clock reverses, i might buy a black jacket or a blue or anything else.

'He is shy and interacts very little with his class fellows' - I had this complement written on report card during my early classes till the time when it changed into.

'Has got immense confidence, talented but very talkative'

And i donot know what i am now. Do you know yourself.?

Do we really know ourselves?

"My kid is really talented" - If you live around people who have kids, you will often hear this from them.
Every parent thinks that his/her kid is talented. Till the time it turns out to be other way round.
When your mother says that my son likes 'Aalo k parathay'....

Do you really like 'aalo k parathay'?

Or is it just a perception? And you submitted yourself to this perception?

So how does the behavior of wives is quite closely related to nature. They unconsciously recognize the wilderness we live in. She knows that even her husband does not know himself, So when he says trust me.....he means that.....but he never knows when the coin will flip.
So she rightfully keeps a close eye on his activities.....
most of the time, husbands get caught red-handed.

As statisticians and psychologists predict about human behavioral variance in cognitive domain - though they know nothing at all, except building and forcing down a perception which few of them created.

So, what is which makes you ----YOU. Who are you?

Slow and steady wins the race - Part II

We all at some stage of life have naively seen that absurdly moral full cartoon story where a fast hare/rabbit lost a running race to a tortoise/turtle.
Since my childhood, i always wanted to meet the directed or writer of the story. I wanted to ask him so many questions.

Why would a hare sleep for so long in the middle of a race.
What was the speed differential between turtle and hare?
What was the time lapse which enabled turtle to cover up all the distance.
Did the stage was already a setup? And the turtle knew that the hare will fall sleep? was it a drama? And hare was paid for sleeping in the middle of the race?

Was he?

You know what actually happened?
The true story has been narrated by our all ears-Fox.


The hare was paid by the elephant who bought the race and made millions out of it. Everyone thought that the hare would win, it was so obvious. So everyone bet on hare. It was only the elephant who placed his assets on the turtle.
Why......because of color. There was deep deep jungle politics involved. Turtle was slow and had skin which matched the skin texture of elephant. He was slow like him. But he wanted to give out a message to compete for upcoming poll.
The entire race was setup by him.
Stakes were really high. Everyone thought that the elephant is the only real friend of Khandaan-e-Turtle who rejected the quite obvious and instead placed in money on turtle.
Turtle knew from the start that he will loose the race. He was never consistent nor motivated. The only thing which kept him running was the pity on elephant who placed all his revenue on him.
He just said to himself  'Tankha halal kar deta hun, bas'

Backstage, elephant bought loyalty of hare who was a true sportsman. Always on sale for higher bet.
after all who plays for the match fee, its the backstage money which buys all the cars and half dressed bitches.

Finally, as part of the deal, hare intentionally fell asleep. He woke up twice in between but got a call from the agent that the poor turtle is only half way through. So he had to sleep for an entire day to let the turtle win.
Everyone was shocked when the race ended. Lion's throne was totally abused. lion had his money on hare too. Half of the forest treasury.
Elephant won the entire fortune which was nearly equal to the entire stock of three states of jungles.
As promised he gave 25 percent of the share to the hare, who later left the jungle for Banana republic to pursue a luxurious life.
The turtle!.......he just got the trophy-made out of pure steel. He is still living a poor and neglected life.

The moral :

Do not bet in a race. Its all staged up. Drama hai drama. 

Sailor on a busy Road

few flashes from the past and i realized...................
when i was driving today, i focused on the path which lay ahead....
round about, turns, lane, indicator, brake, red light.........

In between i talked with my wife...........
sang broken lines of songs for my daughter who sat behind..........

And rarely, very rarely, i glanced at the rear mirror......
what i left behind..........
Looking back helped me in making corrections .........
driving better...............

I left places and people not because i wanted to.....
because it was meant for......
I have to reach my destiny and i can't stop.....
can't look back all the time......

But when i do, it strengthens me......helps me in driving better.